West Virginia Up Against Big 12 Competition

I've been impressed with West Virginia football for a long time.  I think there have been years that the Mountaineers would have performed quite well in the Big 12.  But this year is not one of them.  The competition in the Big 12 is absolutely fierce in 2011-2012.  All of the computer ratings systems favor the Big 12 as the #1 conference this year.  Now granted, each college football season is vastly different.  But this is how my algorithms predict that WVU would perform against the Big 12 right now, if we assume all games were played on neutral turf:

Conference Simulation: West Virginia vs Big 12

Anyone agree?  Disagree?  Post your comments

Conference Expansion Online Simulator

Ever wonder how your favorite college football team would perform against the teams in another conference? For instance, how would a D2 team perform if moved up to an FCS conference? Or an FCS team in one of the FBS conferences? How about an FBS team moving to a different FBS conference? With all the talk of conference expansions and "Power" conferences, that seems to be the hot topic of the 2011-2012 season.

I’ve developed a tool which I think is useful in determining just how well a team could show up at the next level, or against a tougher conference in the same division. Let’s take a couple of examples.

Georgia Southern is currently undefeated at 6-0 and is ranked #2 in my Week 7 FCS rankings. How well do you think Georgia Southern could perform in the ACC or Big East? I think you'd be surprised! Check out the following link:

Conference Simulations: Georgia Southern vs ACC

Now granted, a 3-9 record isn't too impressive on the surface, especially for a program that's used to winning at their level. But when you think about the possibility of adding scholarships and higher caliber players, it definitely makes you think!

Let's look at another. What about Texas A&M moving to the SEC? Well, all things held equal, this will give you a pretty good idea of how A&M's season might turn out:

Conference Simulations: Texas A&M vs SEC

Not a very high probability of taking out the SEC's top two teams (LSU and Bama), but A&M would certainly be a great addition to the SEC on paper.

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These simulations are based on advanced mathematical formulas. They do not take into account injuries, personnel changes, or number of scholarships. They are based on how teams are performing right now, and they’re updated every Monday throughout the football season.

I hope you will find this tool useful and, if nothing else, fun to tinker with. You can compare any FBS, FCS, D2, D3, or NAIA team against any conference. You can also play around with College Basketball and NFL moves. Other sports will be added later. Please feel free share the main link with your friends:

Conference Expansion Online Simulator

As always, I’m eager to hear your feedback and ideas for improvement. There are a number of ways to reach me, so choose a path. You can email me, post on my Facebook page, or Tweet at me (links below). So please don’t hesitate to reach out if you have something on your mind. I sincerely value the friendships and partnerships I’ve been able to develop over the years!

Enjoy the rest of the football season!


Website: http://www.compughterratings.com/

Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/CompughterRatings

Twitter: http://twitter.com/steve__pugh

Week 1 NFL Power Rankings

Welcome back football season!!

In my inaugural year of publishing game predictions for NFL, the Week 1 results finished 11-5 against the Vegas line. And now that a full week of games have been played, I've released the Week 1 NFL Power Rankings here:

NFL Power Rankings

Of course, early in the season when there's not much game data to go on, I have to allow my preseason ratings to heavily weight the overall rating. This week, the preseason ratings accounted for about 2/3 of the overall rating while the actual game results counted only 1/3. Sometimes this produces rankings that look fishy to the skeptic, especially those who aren't especially close to the concepts behind computer generated ratings systems. Hence, I will try to answer a few questions that I expect to get in my inbox later this week.

1. Why the heck is Pittsburgh still ranked one spot above Baltimore after Sunday's shellacking?

Answer: The Ravens started out ranked 8th in the preseason. Despite the fact that the preseason ratings counted a whopping 2/3 of the overall rating, Baltimore still moved up 4 spots. Pittsburgh is still expected to be a strong team and only dropped one spot. Does this mean I think Pittsburgh would win a rematch under the same game conditions? No! Check out what my game simulator has to say about that:

Baltimore-vs-Pittsburgh Simulation Results

2. My Eagles win convincingly in Week 1 and then drop 6 spots to #12? What gives?

Answer: Philadelphia's 31-13 win over St Louis was indeed solid, but they were playing the team that was ranked dead last in the preseason. So the win doesn't really tell us much about what the Eagles might be able to accomplish this season. The Bears, Jets, and Chargers all notched more impressive wins, relatively speaking. I think Phillie is just the victim of a weak schedule in the first week of the season and if the Eagles keep winning I'm sure they'll move back up.

3. Miami and Dallas both lost and yet they both moved up in the power rankings? Why is that?

Answer: Simple. And you will hear this from me time and again. Schedule, schedule, and schedule. Simply by virtue of playing the #1 and #7 teams (and playing them close, I might add), Miami and Dallas improved the value of their stock relative to the other 30 NFL teams. Really no surprises here.


I'll be glad to answer any more questions readers might have on my Facebook fan page, so please don't hesitate to post something so everyone can see my response:

CompughterRatings.com Facebook Fan Page

Interview on John Steigerwald's Show

On August 26, 2011, I had the pleasure of appearing on John Steigerwald's show on TribLive SportsTalk Radio Pittsburgh. We talked about my 2011 preseason college football rankings. Below are parts 1 and 2 of that interview.

Part 1


Part 2

2011 NBA Playoffs - First Round Predictions

The 2011 NBA Playoffs kick off today, and CompughterRatings.com welcomes you to our First Round predictions. We'll keep the analysis simple and straightforward, breaking down each series with statistical highlights and win-loss predictions. For the "Tale of the Tape" analysis and team comparison, just click the links at the top of each series breakdown.

Eastern Conference

#1 Chicago versus #8 Indiana

Chicago (62-20) comes into the series ranked #2 overall and #2 in defense. The Bulls are unquestionably the hottest team in the league, having won 26 of their last 30 games. Indiana (37-45) boasts an 11th ranked offense, which is not bad considering the Pacers' losing record. But they just don't have enough to make this series a contest. Chicago should sweep the series easily.

#2 Miami versus #7 Philadelphia

Miami (58-24) is ranked 8th, both offensively and defensively, and is the #5 overall team. The Heat enter the playoffs with a 19-9 record over the past 8 weeks and face a coasting Philadelphia team with a .500 record at 41-41. We predict the Sixers will pull out one win during the series, but ultimately will be shut down in five games. Miami wins the series 4-1.

#3 Boston versus #6 New York

At 56-26, Boston ranks 1st in the league defensively while New York (42-20) ranks 2nd offensively. This series will undoubtedly be scrappy, as neither team has come on particularly well down the stretch. The Celtics' home court advantage should give them the edge they need to wrap up the series in 6 games.

#4 Orlando versus #5 Atlanta

Orlando (52-30) has won roughly 67% of their games over the past 8 weeks while Atlanta has dropped a similar percentage in the same timeframe. Orlando clearly has the momentum going into the playoffs and Atlanta's near-rock-bottom offense is likely going to cost them the series. Orlando wins it 4-1.

Western Conference

#1 San Antonio versus #8 Memphis

Although San Antonio (61-21) held on to the #1 spot overall for nearly the entire season, injuries have plagued the Spurs down the stretch and present big challenges in the playoffs. At 46-36, Memphis is surging and has an 8-8 record against Top 5 NBA teams this year. The Grizzlies will give the Spurs a tough opening series, but San Antonio will eventually edge them out in 6 games.

#2 LA Lakers versus #7 New Orleans

As expected, the 57-25 LA Lakers are the team to beat in 2011. The defending champions face New Orleans (46-36) in a first round series that showcases two very tough defensive teams. Despite having the 4th ranked defense, the Hornets' offense is just too weak to get it done against the Lakers. Los Angeles wins the series 4-1.

#3 Dallas versus #6 Portland

This is one of only two first round series that we expect to go 7 games. Dallas (57-25) and Portland (48-34) both enter the series will a lot of momentum. Surprisingly, the Maverick defense ranks higher than its offense this year. The Blazers sport the #5 defense overall. Ultimately, the Mavs should prevail 4-3.

#4 Oklahoma City versus #5 Denver

This is the other series we expect to go 7 games. Despite the trade of Carmelo Anthony, Denver (50-32) has lost only 7 of its last 26 games. That's the second best record over the past 8 weeks. Oklahoma City (55-27) emerged on the playoff stage in 2010 and is back again this year with a chip on its shoulder. The two teams' offenses both rank in the top 5 of the league, so this series should be a high-scoring battle. We expect Denver to win the series 4-3.