Saturday, April 16, 2011

2011 NBA Playoffs - First Round Predictions

The 2011 NBA Playoffs kick off today, and CompughterRatings.com welcomes you to our First Round predictions. We'll keep the analysis simple and straightforward, breaking down each series with statistical highlights and win-loss predictions. For the "Tale of the Tape" analysis and team comparison, just click the links at the top of each series breakdown.



Eastern Conference


#1 Chicago versus #8 Indiana

Chicago (62-20) comes into the series ranked #2 overall and #2 in defense. The Bulls are unquestionably the hottest team in the league, having won 26 of their last 30 games. Indiana (37-45) boasts an 11th ranked offense, which is not bad considering the Pacers' losing record. But they just don't have enough to make this series a contest. Chicago should sweep the series easily.



#2 Miami versus #7 Philadelphia

Miami (58-24) is ranked 8th, both offensively and defensively, and is the #5 overall team. The Heat enter the playoffs with a 19-9 record over the past 8 weeks and face a coasting Philadelphia team with a .500 record at 41-41. We predict the Sixers will pull out one win during the series, but ultimately will be shut down in five games. Miami wins the series 4-1.



#3 Boston versus #6 New York

At 56-26, Boston ranks 1st in the league defensively while New York (42-20) ranks 2nd offensively. This series will undoubtedly be scrappy, as neither team has come on particularly well down the stretch. The Celtics' home court advantage should give them the edge they need to wrap up the series in 6 games.



#4 Orlando versus #5 Atlanta

Orlando (52-30) has won roughly 67% of their games over the past 8 weeks while Atlanta has dropped a similar percentage in the same timeframe. Orlando clearly has the momentum going into the playoffs and Atlanta's near-rock-bottom offense is likely going to cost them the series. Orlando wins it 4-1.



Western Conference



#1 San Antonio versus #8 Memphis

Although San Antonio (61-21) held on to the #1 spot overall for nearly the entire season, injuries have plagued the Spurs down the stretch and present big challenges in the playoffs. At 46-36, Memphis is surging and has an 8-8 record against Top 5 NBA teams this year. The Grizzlies will give the Spurs a tough opening series, but San Antonio will eventually edge them out in 6 games.



#2 LA Lakers versus #7 New Orleans

As expected, the 57-25 LA Lakers are the team to beat in 2011. The defending champions face New Orleans (46-36) in a first round series that showcases two very tough defensive teams. Despite having the 4th ranked defense, the Hornets' offense is just too weak to get it done against the Lakers. Los Angeles wins the series 4-1.



#3 Dallas versus #6 Portland

This is one of only two first round series that we expect to go 7 games. Dallas (57-25) and Portland (48-34) both enter the series will a lot of momentum. Surprisingly, the Maverick defense ranks higher than its offense this year. The Blazers sport the #5 defense overall. Ultimately, the Mavs should prevail 4-3.



#4 Oklahoma City versus #5 Denver

This is the other series we expect to go 7 games. Despite the trade of Carmelo Anthony, Denver (50-32) has lost only 7 of its last 26 games. That's the second best record over the past 8 weeks. Oklahoma City (55-27) emerged on the playoff stage in 2010 and is back again this year with a chip on its shoulder. The two teams' offenses both rank in the top 5 of the league, so this series should be a high-scoring battle. We expect Denver to win the series 4-3.