Week 1 NFL Power Rankings

Welcome back football season!!

In my inaugural year of publishing game predictions for NFL, the Week 1 results finished 11-5 against the Vegas line. And now that a full week of games have been played, I've released the Week 1 NFL Power Rankings here:

NFL Power Rankings

Of course, early in the season when there's not much game data to go on, I have to allow my preseason ratings to heavily weight the overall rating. This week, the preseason ratings accounted for about 2/3 of the overall rating while the actual game results counted only 1/3. Sometimes this produces rankings that look fishy to the skeptic, especially those who aren't especially close to the concepts behind computer generated ratings systems. Hence, I will try to answer a few questions that I expect to get in my inbox later this week.

1. Why the heck is Pittsburgh still ranked one spot above Baltimore after Sunday's shellacking?

Answer: The Ravens started out ranked 8th in the preseason. Despite the fact that the preseason ratings counted a whopping 2/3 of the overall rating, Baltimore still moved up 4 spots. Pittsburgh is still expected to be a strong team and only dropped one spot. Does this mean I think Pittsburgh would win a rematch under the same game conditions? No! Check out what my game simulator has to say about that:

Baltimore-vs-Pittsburgh Simulation Results

2. My Eagles win convincingly in Week 1 and then drop 6 spots to #12? What gives?

Answer: Philadelphia's 31-13 win over St Louis was indeed solid, but they were playing the team that was ranked dead last in the preseason. So the win doesn't really tell us much about what the Eagles might be able to accomplish this season. The Bears, Jets, and Chargers all notched more impressive wins, relatively speaking. I think Phillie is just the victim of a weak schedule in the first week of the season and if the Eagles keep winning I'm sure they'll move back up.

3. Miami and Dallas both lost and yet they both moved up in the power rankings? Why is that?

Answer: Simple. And you will hear this from me time and again. Schedule, schedule, and schedule. Simply by virtue of playing the #1 and #7 teams (and playing them close, I might add), Miami and Dallas improved the value of their stock relative to the other 30 NFL teams. Really no surprises here.


I'll be glad to answer any more questions readers might have on my Facebook fan page, so please don't hesitate to post something so everyone can see my response:

CompughterRatings.com Facebook Fan Page

Interview on John Steigerwald's Show

On August 26, 2011, I had the pleasure of appearing on John Steigerwald's show on TribLive SportsTalk Radio Pittsburgh. We talked about my 2011 preseason college football rankings. Below are parts 1 and 2 of that interview.

Part 1


Part 2