North Carolina - 2012 Projected Results

Iowa State - 2012 Projected Results

Centre - 2012 Projected Results

UCLA - 2012 Projected Results

Oregon - 2012 Projected Results

NFL 2012 Preseason Rankings Released

Today I published my preseason rankings for the upcoming NFL season.  The NFL Dashboard is the best place to view the preseason rankings and stop in each week for updates.  If you like to go a little deeper and take a look at offensive and defensive rankings, along with historical rankings, you can go to the NFL Rankings page.  Predictions for the first week of games can be found for free on my NFL Predictions page on Facebook (fans only!) or they can be viewed on the Versus Sports Simulator application for Android, available exclusively on Google Play for a one time fee of just $2.99.

My NFL rankings, statistics, predictions, and the Versus Game Simulator will be updated every Tuesday morning throughout the regular and post season.

A Word about Preseason Rankings

The NFL preseason rankings are based on historical rankings and a minimal amount of knowledge of team changes during the off-season.  They are simply a starting point for team rankings during the regular season, since zero or few games have been played, and they are slowly dampened out as the season progresses.  By the time we get to Week 8, the preseason rankings will be removed completely and all rankings and predictions from that point forward will be based 100% on games played in 2012.  It's important to note that one team ranked higher than another team does not necessarily imply that my algorithm would predict the first team to defeat the second one.  Also, it is noteworthy that the preseason rankings are not influenced in any way by the outcome of any of the preseason games.

Offensive and Defensive Rankings

Offensive and defensive rankings are simply the ordered ranking of the respective offensive and defensive ratings.  The offensive and defensive ratings themselves are not published on any public medium, but they are used exclusively for game predictions.  They are also the "special sauce" behind the Versus Sports Simulator, which allows you to simulate action between any two teams, regardless of whether or not those teams are scheduled to meet during the season.

Offensive and defensive ratings do not collectively depict the overall rating or ranking of a team.  They indicate a team's potential to score or deny points during a game, but they do not imply the team's ability (or inability) to win a certain number of games. The best example of this is the Denver Broncos in 2011-2012.  At 9-9, the team was ranked 11th (out of 32 teams) in my power rankings, despite the fact that they were ranked 25th and 26th in offense and defense.  This is because Denver somehow was able to win games *despite* their offensive and defensive woes.  Some may refer to this as the "Tebow Effect".

As more and more games are played throughout the season, the offensive and defensive ratings (and hence, the predictions) will become slighty more accurate.  During the 2011-2012 season, the Adjusted Vegas Line correctly picked the winner 65% of the time (record of 175-92) and the CompughterRatings.com algorithm finished the season at 63% (record of 170-97).  That's a difference of only 5 games.  And keep in mind, the Adjusted Vegas Line factors in player injuries, coaching changes, weather, and all sorts of other factors that my computer algorithm has no possible way of knowing.  That said, a 63% accuracy rate is relatively good!

The "Versus Sports Simulator" Android App

Since all my ratings and rankings are updated weekly, the Versus Sports Simulator will predict a slightly different outcome each week.  In the screen shot to the right, I have simulated the first game of the season between the Giants and Cowboys.  Additional team statistics are available by scrolling vertically on the app.  Also, as you can see at the bottom of the Android screen, the simulator not only predicts the outcome, but also the margin of victory and the total points scored.  It is important to note that these numbers are computed by a computer algorithm and not by Vegas oddsmakers.  They should be used for entertainment purposes only, and not for wagering.


The fun part about the app is using the "Game Simulator" feature to project what the outcome would be between any two teams (not just the ones scheduled to play each other).  The simulator factors in home field advantage, allowing you to see how the outcomes might change depending on the venue.  Pretty cool, huh?  The "Versus Sports Simulator" is available for download from Google Play.  You can also view more screenshots on the Versus home page.

Enjoy the preseason rankings and the football season!!

Oklahoma - 2012 Projected Results

New Mexico - 2012 Projected Results

Virginia Tech - 2012 Projected Results

Appalachian St - 2012 Projected Results

Iowa - 2012 Projected Results

North Dakota St - 2012 Projected Results

Montana St - 2012 Projected Results

San Diego St - 2012 Projected Results

Illinois - 2012 Projected Results

Elmhurst - 2012 Projected Results

Houston - 2012 Projected Results

Claremont - 2012 Projected Results

NW Missouri State - 2012 Projected Results

Army - 2012 Projected Results

Rutgers - 2012 Projected Results

Northern Iowa - 2012 Projected Results

Richmond - 2012 Projected Results

Old Dominion - 2012 Projected Results

Montana - 2012 Projected Results

Wake Forest - 2012 Projected Results

Texas - 2012 Projected Results

Missouri - 2012 Projected Results

James Madison - 2012 Projected Results

Norfolk State - 2012 Projected Results

South Carolina - 2012 Projected Results

Virginia - 2012 Projected Results

Virginia was one of the toughest teams to project this preseason.  The graphic to the right tells the story of what my computer algorithm predicts will happen and it doesn't take into account any knowledge of coaches, players, injuries, etc.  With what's happened to Penn State, that game could easily be a win.  Plus, I'm so impressed with Mike London at UVA, I picked the Cavaliers to win their games against both Miami and North Carolina in my preseason conference predictions.  Those games are listed as swing games in the graphic, but I believe Virginia will win both of those home games.

Nebraska - 2012 Projected Results

Ohio University - 2012 Projected Results

Texas Tech - 2012 Projected Results

Pittsburgh Panthers - 2012 Projected Results

2012-2013 FBS Strength of Schedule Summary

I’ve ranked the schedules of all 124 FBS teams in the table below.  Notre Dame has the toughest schedule overall, facing five Preseason Top 25 opponents in 2012-2013.  Since most FBS teams play schedules that include FCS teams, I’ve included the Overall Preseason Rank in the table so that you will see how these teams actually rank amongst the 729 teams that make up FBS, FCS, D2, D3, and NAIA.  In the second table below, I’ve included the conference SOS rankings for FBS. 

SCHED RANK	TEAM	CONF	OVERALL PRES RANK	TOP 25 OPPs	AVG OPP RANK
1	Notre Dame	Independents	27	5	36.2
2	Baylor	Big 12	39	6	44.3
3	Miami FL	ACC	47	3	45.1
4	TCU	Big 12	19	5	45.8
5	California	Pac 12	41	4	46.3
6	West Virginia	Big 12	11	5	46.7
7	Iowa St	Big 12	54	6	47.4
8	Southern Cal	Pac 12	2	2	48
9	South Carolina	SEC	10	5	48.1
10	Kansas	Big 12	89	6	48.5
11	Florida	SEC	22	4	48.6
12	LSU	SEC	1	4	49.8
13	Arkansas	SEC	8	3	49.9
14	Stanford	Pac 12	21	2	50.1
15	Texas A&M	SEC	26	4	50.8
16	Michigan	Big 10	6	4	50.9
17	Mississippi	SEC	70	5	51.1
18	UCLA	Pac 12	48	3	51.3
19	Maryland	ACC	78	3	51.3
20	Penn State	Big 10	31	3	51.7
21	Kentucky	SEC	63	5	52.2
22	Texas	Big 12	13	5	52.8
23	Washington	Pac 12	33	4	52.8
24	Missouri	SEC	29	4	53.1
25	Boston College	ACC	75	3	53.2
26	Arizona	Pac 12	50	4	53.3
27	Kansas St	Big 12	23	5	53.5
28	Ohio State	Big 10	12	4	54.2
29	Michigan St	Big 10	16	5	54.6
30	Arizona St	Pac 12	56	2	55.1
31	Oregon St	Pac 12	61	3	55.3
32	Syracuse	Big East	73	2	55.5
33	Virginia	ACC	34	2	55.9
34	Minnesota	Big 10	72	4	56.3
35	Washington St	Pac 12	57	2	56.8
36	Oklahoma	Big 12	5	5	56.9
37	Colorado	Pac 12	86	3	57.2
38	Clemson	ACC	18	3	57.7
39	Purdue	Big 10	53	3	59.4
40	Northwestern	Big 10	52	3	60.3
41	Iowa	Big 10	40	3	60.6
42	Nebraska	Big 10	20	4	61.2
43	Wake Forest	ACC	59	2	62
44	Wisconsin	Big 10	14	3	62.2
45	Auburn	SEC	28	5	62.9
46	Oregon	Pac 12	4	2	63.8
47	Georgia	SEC	7	2	63.9
48	South Florida	Big East	49	2	64.8
49	Temple	Big East	100	1	66.2
50	Indiana	Big 10	106	3	66.2
51	North Carolina	ACC	37	2	66.6
52	Alabama	SEC	3	3	67
53	Texas Tech	Big 12	44	6	68.8
54	North Carolina St	ACC	32	2	68.9
55	Vanderbilt	SEC	51	3	69.8
56	Louisville	Big East	25	0	70
57	Virginia Tech	ACC	15	2	70.4
58	Georgia Tech	ACC	35	3	71.7
59	Tennessee	SEC	38	4	72.2
60	Utah	Pac 12	30	1	72.9
61	Mississippi St	SEC	42	3	73.9
62	Connecticut	Big East	62	1	75.6
63	Oklahoma St	Big 12	17	5	76.4
64	Illinois	Big 10	55	3	76.5
65	UTEP	C-USA	128	2	77.9
66	Brigham Young	Independents	36	1	81.1
67	Duke	ACC	81	4	81.8
68	Pittsburgh	Big East	45	2	83.6
69	Fresno St	MWC	91	2	88.3
70	SMU	C-USA	67	1	88.5
71	Southern Miss	C-USA	71	3	89.8
72	Florida St	ACC	9	3	90.4
73	East Carolina	C-USA	101	1	90.9
74	Boise St	MWC	24	1	92
75	Eastern Michigan	MAC	143	1	92.5
76	Army	Independents	121	0	93
77	Ball St	MAC	119	1	93.3
78	Rutgers	Big East	43	2	95.1
79	UNLV	MWC	150	1	95.1
80	San Diego St	MWC	88	1	96.7
81	Alabama-Birmingham	C-USA	136	2	96.7
82	Wyoming	MWC	80	2	98.3
83	Central Florida	C-USA	58	1	98.5
84	Colorado St	MWC	109	1	99.3
85	Buffalo	MAC	157	1	100.6
86	Tulane	C-USA	158	0	100.8
87	Marshall	C-USA	74	1	100.9
88	Louisiana-Monroe	Sun Belt	112	1	101
89	Idaho	WAC	130	1	101.1
90	Massachusetts	MAC	167	1	101.3
91	Hawai`i	MWC	107	2	102.9
92	Tulsa	C-USA	66	1	103.2
93	Troy	Sun Belt	120	0	105.3
94	Rice	C-USA	127	0	106.1
95	Houston	C-USA	64	0	106.3
96	Nevada	MWC	60	1	106.7
97	Akron	MAC	226	0	109.3
98	Texas St-San Marcos	WAC	174	0	109.4
99	Memphis	C-USA	196	0	109.5
100	Cincinnati	Big East	46	2	110.1
101	Miami OH	MAC	114	2	111.7
102	New Mexico	MWC	182	2	111.7
103	Louisiana Tech	WAC	68	0	112.2
104	San Jose St	WAC	111	1	112.2
105	Kent St	MAC	102	0	112.8
106	Air Force	MWC	94	1	113
107	Florida Atlantic	Sun Belt	171	2	113.3
108	Western Kentucky	Sun Belt	122	1	113.8
109	Utah St	WAC	97	1	114.3
110	Florida Int'l	Sun Belt	76	1	116.3
111	Louisiana-Lafayette	Sun Belt	99	2	117.1
112	Central Michigan	MAC	139	1	117.1
113	Middle Tennessee St	Sun Belt	140	0	117.2
114	North Texas	Sun Belt	129	2	117.6
115	Bowling Green	MAC	115	2	119.7
116	Western Michigan	MAC	92	0	120.5
117	New Mexico St	WAC	134	0	120.7
118	Toledo	MAC	87	0	121.6
119	South Alabama	Sun Belt	163	0	124.9
120	Navy	Independents	69	0	129
121	Arkansas St	Sun Belt	79	2	131.8
122	Ohio U.	MAC	65	0	132.3
123	Northern Illinois	MAC	83	0	133.5
124	Texas-San Antonio	WAC	244	0	196.3

Here are the 2012-2013 strength of schedule rankings for the FBS conferences.  To compute the average, I totaled up the average opponent rankings of the teams in each conference and divided by the number of teams in each conference.  As you can see, the Big 12 conference is considered to have the toughest schedule again this year.  Keep in mind, these schedule rankings include opponents outside of the conference.

CONF	TOTAL	TEAMS	AVG
Big 12	230	10	23.00
Pac 12	333	12	27.75
SEC	441	14	31.50
Big 10	447	12	37.25
ACC	520	12	43.33
Big East	493	8	61.63
Independents	263	4	65.75
C-USA	996	12	83.00
MWC	863	10	86.30
MAC	1336	13	102.77
WAC	744	7	106.29
Sun Belt	1084	10	108.40