CompughterRatings.com Sports Blog

CompughterRatings.com Named Most Accurate Preseason College Football Publication

2012-01-12T00:09:00.001-05:00

CompughterRatings.com was named the #1 most accurate preseason college football publication for the second time in three years. Stassen.com, a renowned online publication specializing in the measurement of preseason publications since 1993, awarded top place honors to CompughterRatings.com ahead of GamePlan, Phil Steele, Lindy's, Athlon Sports, USA Today, ESPN, and several other well known publications.

CompughterRatings.com is also the reigning 3-year accuracy winner, followed by Game Plan, USA Today, Phil Steele, Athlon Sports, and Lindy’s: Preseason Prediction Accuracy (2009-2011) - Stassen.com.

Steve Pugh with Virginia Tech Head Coach Frank Beamer

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West Virginia Up Against Big 12 Competition

2011-10-26T09:28:00.001-04:00

I've been impressed with West Virginia football for a long time. I think there have been years that the Mountaineers would have performed quite well in the Big 12. But this year is not one of them. The competition in the Big 12 is absolutely fierce in 2011-2012. All of the computer ratings systems favor the Big 12 as the #1 conference this year. Now granted, each college football season is vastly different. But this is how my algorithms predict that WVU would perform against the Big 12 right now, if we assume all games were played on neutral turf:

Conference Simulation: West Virginia vs Big 12

Anyone agree? Disagree? Post your comments

Conference Expansion Online Simulator

2011-10-20T23:43:00.000-04:00

Ever wonder how your favorite college football team would perform against the teams in another conference? For instance, how would a D2 team perform if moved up to an FCS conference? Or an FCS team in one of the FBS conferences? How about an FBS team moving to a different FBS conference? With all the talk of conference expansions and "Power" conferences, that seems to be the hot topic of the 2011-2012 season.

I’ve developed a tool which I think is useful in determining just how well a team could show up at the next level, or against a tougher conference in the same division. Let’s take a couple of examples.

Georgia Southern is currently undefeated at 6-0 and is ranked #2 in my Week 7 FCS rankings. How well do you think Georgia Southern could perform in the ACC or Big East? I think you'd be surprised! Check out the following link:

Conference Simulations: Georgia Southern vs ACC

Now granted, a 3-9 record isn't too impressive on the surface, especially for a program that's used to winning at their level. But when you think about the possibility of adding scholarships and higher caliber players, it definitely makes you think!

Let's look at another. What about Texas A&M moving to the SEC? Well, all things held equal, this will give you a pretty good idea of how A&M's season might turn out:

Conference Simulations: Texas A&M vs SEC

Not a very high probability of taking out the SEC's top two teams (LSU and Bama), but A&M would certainly be a great addition to the SEC on paper.

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These simulations are based on advanced mathematical formulas. They do not take into account injuries, personnel changes, or number of scholarships. They are based on how teams are performing right now, and they’re updated every Monday throughout the football season.

I hope you will find this tool useful and, if nothing else, fun to tinker with. You can compare any FBS, FCS, D2, D3, or NAIA team against any conference. You can also play around with College Basketball and NFL moves. Other sports will be added later. Please feel free share the main link with your friends:

Conference Expansion Online Simulator

As always, I’m eager to hear your feedback and ideas for improvement. There are a number of ways to reach me, so choose a path. You can email me, post on my Facebook page, or Tweet at me (links below). So please don’t hesitate to reach out if you have something on your mind. I sincerely value the friendships and partnerships I’ve been able to develop over the years!

Enjoy the rest of the football season!

Website: http://www.compughterratings.com/

Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/CompughterRatings

Twitter: http://twitter.com/steve__pugh

Week 1 NFL Power Rankings

2011-09-13T18:13:00.006-04:00

Welcome back football season!!

In my inaugural year of publishing game predictions for NFL, the Week 1 results finished 11-5 against the Vegas line. And now that a full week of games have been played, I've released the Week 1 NFL Power Rankings here:

NFL Power Rankings

Of course, early in the season when there's not much game data to go on, I have to allow my preseason ratings to heavily weight the overall rating. This week, the preseason ratings accounted for about 2/3 of the overall rating while the actual game results counted only 1/3. Sometimes this produces rankings that look fishy to the skeptic, especially those who aren't especially close to the concepts behind computer generated ratings systems. Hence, I will try to answer a few questions that I expect to get in my inbox later this week.

1. Why the heck is Pittsburgh still ranked one spot above Baltimore after Sunday's shellacking?

Answer: The Ravens started out ranked 8th in the preseason. Despite the fact that the preseason ratings counted a whopping 2/3 of the overall rating, Baltimore still moved up 4 spots. Pittsburgh is still expected to be a strong team and only dropped one spot. Does this mean I think Pittsburgh would win a rematch under the same game conditions? No! Check out what my game simulator has to say about that:

Baltimore-vs-Pittsburgh Simulation Results

2. My Eagles win convincingly in Week 1 and then drop 6 spots to #12? What gives?

Answer: Philadelphia's 31-13 win over St Louis was indeed solid, but they were playing the team that was ranked dead last in the preseason. So the win doesn't really tell us much about what the Eagles might be able to accomplish this season. The Bears, Jets, and Chargers all notched more impressive wins, relatively speaking. I think Phillie is just the victim of a weak schedule in the first week of the season and if the Eagles keep winning I'm sure they'll move back up.

3. Miami and Dallas both lost and yet they both moved up in the power rankings? Why is that?

Answer: Simple. And you will hear this from me time and again. Schedule, schedule, and schedule. Simply by virtue of playing the #1 and #7 teams (and playing them close, I might add), Miami and Dallas improved the value of their stock relative to the other 30 NFL teams. Really no surprises here.

I'll be glad to answer any more questions readers might have on my Facebook fan page, so please don't hesitate to post something so everyone can see my response:

CompughterRatings.com Facebook Fan Page

Interview on John Steigerwald's Show

2011-09-12T23:17:00.003-04:00

On August 26, 2011, I had the pleasure of appearing on John Steigerwald's show on TribLive SportsTalk Radio Pittsburgh. We talked about my 2011 preseason college football rankings. Below are parts 1 and 2 of that interview.

Part 1

Part 2

2011 NBA Playoffs - First Round Predictions

2011-04-16T12:29:00.039-04:00

The 2011 NBA Playoffs kick off today, and CompughterRatings.com welcomes you to our First Round predictions. We'll keep the analysis simple and straightforward, breaking down each series with statistical highlights and win-loss predictions. For the "Tale of the Tape" analysis and team comparison, just click the links at the top of each series breakdown.

Eastern Conference

#1 Chicago versus #8 Indiana

Chicago (62-20) comes into the series ranked #2 overall and #2 in defense. The Bulls are unquestionably the hottest team in the league, having won 26 of their last 30 games. Indiana (37-45) boasts an 11th ranked offense, which is not bad considering the Pacers' losing record. But they just don't have enough to make this series a contest. Chicago should sweep the series easily.

#2 Miami versus #7 Philadelphia

Miami (58-24) is ranked 8th, both offensively and defensively, and is the #5 overall team. The Heat enter the playoffs with a 19-9 record over the past 8 weeks and face a coasting Philadelphia team with a .500 record at 41-41. We predict the Sixers will pull out one win during the series, but ultimately will be shut down in five games. Miami wins the series 4-1.

#3 Boston versus #6 New York

At 56-26, Boston ranks 1st in the league defensively while New York (42-20) ranks 2nd offensively. This series will undoubtedly be scrappy, as neither team has come on particularly well down the stretch. The Celtics' home court advantage should give them the edge they need to wrap up the series in 6 games.

#4 Orlando versus #5 Atlanta

Orlando (52-30) has won roughly 67% of their games over the past 8 weeks while Atlanta has dropped a similar percentage in the same timeframe. Orlando clearly has the momentum going into the playoffs and Atlanta's near-rock-bottom offense is likely going to cost them the series. Orlando wins it 4-1.

Western Conference

#1 San Antonio versus #8 Memphis

Although San Antonio (61-21) held on to the #1 spot overall for nearly the entire season, injuries have plagued the Spurs down the stretch and present big challenges in the playoffs. At 46-36, Memphis is surging and has an 8-8 record against Top 5 NBA teams this year. The Grizzlies will give the Spurs a tough opening series, but San Antonio will eventually edge them out in 6 games.

#2 LA Lakers versus #7 New Orleans

As expected, the 57-25 LA Lakers are the team to beat in 2011. The defending champions face New Orleans (46-36) in a first round series that showcases two very tough defensive teams. Despite having the 4th ranked defense, the Hornets' offense is just too weak to get it done against the Lakers. Los Angeles wins the series 4-1.

#3 Dallas versus #6 Portland

This is one of only two first round series that we expect to go 7 games. Dallas (57-25) and Portland (48-34) both enter the series will a lot of momentum. Surprisingly, the Maverick defense ranks higher than its offense this year. The Blazers sport the #5 defense overall. Ultimately, the Mavs should prevail 4-3.

#4 Oklahoma City versus #5 Denver

This is the other series we expect to go 7 games. Despite the trade of Carmelo Anthony, Denver (50-32) has lost only 7 of its last 26 games. That's the second best record over the past 8 weeks. Oklahoma City (55-27) emerged on the playoff stage in 2010 and is back again this year with a chip on its shoulder. The two teams' offenses both rank in the top 5 of the league, so this series should be a high-scoring battle. We expect Denver to win the series 4-3.

An ugly weekend in more ways than one

2009-11-02T15:52:00.003-05:00

Michael Jordan has missed shots, the Yankees have lost world series' and even Tiger Woods has missed a cut from time to time. The point is, even the greats have less-than-stellar moments.

In much the same way, college football has to have an ugly weekend every once in awhile, it is unavoidable.

This weekend was college football’s flop week.

Not only was the schedule going in atrocious as a whole, what with no really interesting games until the night schedule, but even the games of interest, with one exception, were terrible watches.

Texas blew out Oklahoma State, Tennessee blasted South Carolina and Florida had no problems with Georgia.

The one good game of the week was USC-Oregon, but even that was a blowout with only the upset storyline to hold on to.

It was obvious the big-wigs in college football preferred trick or treating over providing interest to fans.

Another black eye on the weekend was the grotesque uniforms that some of the teams wore in their games.

The fact is that I saw some costumes at the party I went to that were nicer looking that the alternates that a few teams pulled out.

First was the horrible orange jerseys that Virginia Tech wore Thursday night. Not only did they look ridiculous, but the Hokies also fell to North Carolina, making the one-time jersey all-the-more horrible.

I don’t care how much money Nike gives you, certain things should just be left in the box.

Then on Saturday you had the black helmets of Georgia and the Black unis that Tennessee pulled out against South Carolina.

The helmets Georgia wore for the first time in their history looked ridiculous and made a pathetic play on one of college football’s most traditional looks.

The Vols’ black jerseys looked like practice uniforms and looked even worse with the orange numbers and pants.

I get the whole “black out” thing, but when are teams going to learn that the ploy usually makes your team look more embarrassing when they lose in black?

At least Tennessee won, but with the history of the black out, I would think teams would get wise and decide not to wear them.

Another wild, and semi-ugly, trend straight from the “just in case you didn’t know” file, is the fact that Duke- yes I said Duke - is currently in second in the ACC coastal and can move into the drivers seat if they beat Georgia Tech at home in two weeks.

I don’t know if this phenomenon is a point on how far Duke has come or if it just further tells the story of how pathetic the ACC is.

Congrats to David Cutcliffe, he has done a great job, but I think it has more to do with the latter.

However I will say that seeing Duke in Miami for the Orange Bowl at the end of the year would be one of the biggest anomalies in sports history and would send a giant middle finger to the BCS system and the college football world as we know it.

No matter how ugly this season gets across the board, it is still been an entertaining season and I am sure it will continue in that fashion.

Whew!!!...that was a close one/ You mess with the frog, you get the horns

2009-10-26T13:02:00.007-04:00

What a day of college football this past Saturday's slate provided. But a common theme that loomed over the country was the performances in potential let down games.

Alabama narrowly escaped against Tennesse, Florida went into a hostile environment and survived Mississippi State, Texas crushed seemingly tough Missouri and Iowa hung on to beat Michigan State on the road.

This week just provided more fuel to the discussion of who the nation’s top team is. I think by now we can narrow the discussion down to those four aforementioned teams, but beyond that I have no idea.

I have argued that Alabama is the most complete team there is in college football, but after the combination of this week and last week’s games, I am not so sure.
The Tide’s offense is speculative, despite the fact that Mark Ingram is the nation’s best player in my opinion.

The defense is great, but as we saw yesterday if you can’t score then you still have a tough time winning not matter who the opponent is.

Florida is about as tough as a bulldog on steroids, but I don’t think they have the athletes they have had in the past and their offensive style isn’t infallible because they have not shown they have big play capabilities.

I know that the Urban Meyer spread is not built to have that big play capability, but I think you need that in order to beat a team like Alabama (I don’t see Tim Tebow running over Terrence Cody any time soon.)

Iowa is still that unknown “litte guy.”

The Hawkeyes have posted somewhat impressive wins, but I still do not believe that team could even tie the cleats of a Florida or Alabama if they were to play in the national championship game.

Which is why I am so surprised to see them in the CompughterRatings.com rankings’ top spot this week.

I wonder how it is possible because they do not have an impressive out-of-conference win and they haven’t played Ohio State yet.

I will still say the win at Penn State is very impressive, so I am interested to see what this team is all about because if nothing else, they are a compelling story.
That is the kind of thing you make a movie about if the Hawkeyes figure out a way to get themselves into the national championship.

Texas is still the wildcard.

To me they still have no impressive win. They beat Oklahoma in an ugly game in which Sam Bradford or Jermaine Grisham did not play.

Saturday they pounded unranked Missouri on the road. I don’t see this as an eye-popping win although it is a good one.

At the same time Texas finds themselves in the perfect situation.

They have played the toughest part of their schedule, with the exception of the game at Oklahoma State. And if the run the table, which they probably will, they will be placed into the title game because they are Texas.

The other major subject from Saturday was TCU’s impressive victory at BYU, where to me they solidified themselves as the best non-BCS team in the country.

Sorry to Boise State fans, but if those two played right now I am taking the Horned Frogs comfortably.

TCU plays exceptional defense and have big-play athletes on offense.

Boise State is cute, as always, with their gadget plays and a ‘run around you not through you’ mentality, but TCU is the real deal because of their defense.

Not to mention the Mountain West is unequivocally the best non-BCS conference well over the WAC or any other that you want throw at me.

TCU, Utah and BYU are better than a lot of BCS teams and all three have the talent to be BCS busters this season.

I hope TCU runs the table, even though they still have to play Utah, because I think they could be a very compelling team in a BCS game.

Suprises and shake-ups continue in excess

2009-10-18T20:49:00.001-04:00

Taylor Howsmon

I personally cannot remember a college football season that has had as many surprises or parity from week to week than the 2009 season thus far.

This weekend was no different as we saw the top four teams in the country struggle unexpectedly with one, Virginia Tech, dropping its game.

As the weeks go on it is getting harder and harder to predict what will happen.
One great example of this goofy season is the ACC.

I realize it is not the most talented conference in America, far from it, but even the most knowledgeable college football pundit must be cross-eyed by the way this thing seems to be shaking out.

After starting 0-3, including a home loss to William & Mary to open the season, Virginia now leads the Coastal division and is the only undefeated team left in league play.

Of course I don’t think that will hold up, considering the ‘Hoos have only played two games in conference, one of which was Maryland, but it is definitely surprising.
Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech and Miami might be the best teams in the conference but unbelievably none control their own destiny at this point.

In the Atlantic, the standings are more confusing than Sylvester Stallone’s decision to make Rocky V.

The crazy thing is that a 4-4 record could win this division, if that even works out mathematically (I became a journalist so I wouldn’t have to do math). It is pathetic, but entertaining.

Moving away from the ACC, the national championship favorite is still a mystery at this point.

I would say Alabama, but they certainly were not impressive against South Carolina at home. The Gamecocks can play defense, but their offense is so much of a joke they should start punting on first down.

The Tide had to hold on to beat them, and score a late touchdown to clinch it. Florida was even less impressive at home against Arkansas, who can score but has been giving up points right and left.

Iowa took a big step toward contention—yes, I said Iowa.

It is crazy to think the team that only beat FCS Northern Iowa by two points to open the season might be in the hunt for a title.

Especially because being the best team in the Big Ten is like being the smartest person on “The Hills”—not too impressive.

But their win at Wisconsin and Ohio State’s embarrassment at Purdue puts the Hawkeyes in the driver’s seat for the conference, and I can’t see them even having a chance to stumble until they play the Buckeyes in a couple weeks.

Texas remains undefeated after the nice win over Oklahoma, but remember Sam Bradford didn’t play and the Sooners still had a shot to win it late.

Plus, besides that three-loss Oklahoma team, the Longhorns haven’t played a team with a pulse, so there is no reason to believe Texas is a favorite.

Of course, what do I know anyway? Last week I gave you three “pretenders” who I thought were out of the BCS picture. Of those three, two had very impressive wins Saturday night with Georgia Tech beating the Hokies and USC dumping Notre Dame in South Bend.

As for my “contenders,” Nebraska got taken behind the woodshed by lowly Texas Tech in Lincoln, so clearly they are not who I thought they were.

This is really what is good about college football. We have absolutely no clue who is going to sneak up and who is going to disappoint from week to week.

As for the Heisman race, I have a new front runner. And although the nation is finally beginning to catch on, I have been saying this name for weeks: Mark Ingram from Alabama, who ran for 246 yards in Saturday’s win.

The tailback is leading the Tide to a great season and is easily the best tailback in the country. Although Bama was not impressive in their game Saturday night, Ingram was and he led the Tide to the win.

However, this observation does not matter because the Heisman is still going to go to a national darling like Tim Tebow or Colt McCoy. In theory, the award should go to the nation’s best player, but we all know that isn’t what really happens.

Instead the award goes to the one with the most exposure and who happens to be on the best team. That might end up being Ingram, but I doubt he wins the award.

We will see you next week for what I am pretty sure will be another week of unexpected wins and losses as well as Disappointments and Statements. It seems to be the theme of the year.

BCS contenders/pretenders begin to emerge over the weekend

2009-10-11T19:49:00.014-04:00

The conference season is beginning to heat up and the contenders are beginning to separate themselves from the pretenders around the world of college football.

This weekend, many teams placed themselves into the two categories and some just delayed the pretender tag that will inevitably meet up with them in the future.

The top team according to the majority of national rankings is Florida, who battled all the questions about their “superman” Tim Tebow's concussion and won at LSU this weekend.

The win was impressive on paper, but to me the jury is still out on Florida being the nation’s top team.

There is no question about the talent Urban Meyer has brought to Gainesville or the fact that Tim Tebow is probably the most respected athlete in college sports. Plus there is the theory that until someone knocks off the national champion they are the king of the mountain.

But with the cream puff competition they have played, and no Alabama on the schedule, how could they be considered America’s best team?

The only time the Gators will be able to prove to anyone that they belong in the top spot will be in the SEC championship game.

Alabama on the other hand has already played and won a neutral site game with Virginia Tech and a road game with Ole Miss. And although the Rebels were massively overrated to begin the year, dominant wins over both are very impressive.

Bama has one of the best defenses I have ever seen and an offense that doesn’t make mistakes while scoring points.

The Tide do not have Tebow, but they made a huge case as the nations’ best team Saturday.

As for Texas, I believe that there is a reason why CompughterRatings.com has them down at number 10.

There are high school teams that have seen better competition than the Longhorns.

I know the slate gets more difficult, but with cupcakes on their schedule such as UTEP, Wyoming and Louisiana-Monroe, and their toughest game so far being a home game against struggling Colorado, Texas has proven nothing.

To me Virginia Tech is the team that is the most interesting.

Everybody knows who the Hokies have been since a national championship run in 1999: a defensive juggernaut who's offense has been as smooth as a drunken frat guy.

But this season has been different since their miraculous win against Nebraska.

All of the sudden the Hokies have found their offensive mojo. With wins against the Cornhuskers and Miami under their belt, the Hokies have nobody else on their schedule that poses much threat.

After their game next Saturday at Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech’s toughest remaining game is a Thursday night match up with North Carolina in Blacksburg.

In other words … I like their chances of running the table.

With the AP and Coaches’ top four out of the way, here are some other contenders and pretenders in the BCS hunt along with their CompughterRatings.com ranking.

Contenders:

Oregon (7) - Despite a disastrous opening weekend, the Ducks have now beaten Utah, Cal and UCLA. They are inching closer to contention for the top spot in the Pac-10.

Iowa (4) - Big wins over Penn State and Michigan have given them a great position in the Big Ten. A win against Ohio State later this season would get the Hawkeyes recognition.

Cincinnati (13) - Tony Pike and Mardy Gilyard are two of the nation’s best players whom you have never heard of and in a less than stellar Big East, the Bearcats will have a chance to run the table.

Nebraska (15) - The Cornhuskers moved into the driver’s seat for the Big 12 north title with a huge win at Missouri last Thursday. Despite the loss at Virginia Tech, they could win the rest of their games with no Texas or Oklahoma State on their schedule.

Pretenders:

USC (9) - The Trojans had the slip up at Washington and although they have a big win at Ohio State on the resume, the freshman quarterback and tough Pac 10 schedule will be too much in my opinion. Remember, they still have to play at Oregon.

Georgia Tech (14) - The Yellow Jackets simply do not have the defense to contend for even an ACC title, or the offense to help them come back in games which they are down. I think this team fades in a major way down the stretch.

Kansas (18) - Sure they are still unbeaten, but the Jayhawks’ schedule is an even bigger joke than Texas’. When Duke is your best opponent so far, it is hard to take them seriously. With Oklahoma, Texas and Nebraska still on the schedule, Kansas better prepare to take their lumps.