NFL 2012 Preseason Rankings Released

Today I published my preseason rankings for the upcoming NFL season.  The NFL Dashboard is the best place to view the preseason rankings and stop in each week for updates.  If you like to go a little deeper and take a look at offensive and defensive rankings, along with historical rankings, you can go to the NFL Rankings page.  Predictions for the first week of games can be found for free on my NFL Predictions page on Facebook (fans only!) or they can be viewed on the Versus Sports Simulator application for Android, available exclusively on Google Play for a one time fee of just $2.99.

My NFL rankings, statistics, predictions, and the Versus Game Simulator will be updated every Tuesday morning throughout the regular and post season.

A Word about Preseason Rankings

The NFL preseason rankings are based on historical rankings and a minimal amount of knowledge of team changes during the off-season.  They are simply a starting point for team rankings during the regular season, since zero or few games have been played, and they are slowly dampened out as the season progresses.  By the time we get to Week 8, the preseason rankings will be removed completely and all rankings and predictions from that point forward will be based 100% on games played in 2012.  It's important to note that one team ranked higher than another team does not necessarily imply that my algorithm would predict the first team to defeat the second one.  Also, it is noteworthy that the preseason rankings are not influenced in any way by the outcome of any of the preseason games.

Offensive and Defensive Rankings

Offensive and defensive rankings are simply the ordered ranking of the respective offensive and defensive ratings.  The offensive and defensive ratings themselves are not published on any public medium, but they are used exclusively for game predictions.  They are also the "special sauce" behind the Versus Sports Simulator, which allows you to simulate action between any two teams, regardless of whether or not those teams are scheduled to meet during the season.

Offensive and defensive ratings do not collectively depict the overall rating or ranking of a team.  They indicate a team's potential to score or deny points during a game, but they do not imply the team's ability (or inability) to win a certain number of games. The best example of this is the Denver Broncos in 2011-2012.  At 9-9, the team was ranked 11th (out of 32 teams) in my power rankings, despite the fact that they were ranked 25th and 26th in offense and defense.  This is because Denver somehow was able to win games *despite* their offensive and defensive woes.  Some may refer to this as the "Tebow Effect".

As more and more games are played throughout the season, the offensive and defensive ratings (and hence, the predictions) will become slighty more accurate.  During the 2011-2012 season, the Adjusted Vegas Line correctly picked the winner 65% of the time (record of 175-92) and the CompughterRatings.com algorithm finished the season at 63% (record of 170-97).  That's a difference of only 5 games.  And keep in mind, the Adjusted Vegas Line factors in player injuries, coaching changes, weather, and all sorts of other factors that my computer algorithm has no possible way of knowing.  That said, a 63% accuracy rate is relatively good!

The "Versus Sports Simulator" Android App

Since all my ratings and rankings are updated weekly, the Versus Sports Simulator will predict a slightly different outcome each week.  In the screen shot to the right, I have simulated the first game of the season between the Giants and Cowboys.  Additional team statistics are available by scrolling vertically on the app.  Also, as you can see at the bottom of the Android screen, the simulator not only predicts the outcome, but also the margin of victory and the total points scored.  It is important to note that these numbers are computed by a computer algorithm and not by Vegas oddsmakers.  They should be used for entertainment purposes only, and not for wagering.


The fun part about the app is using the "Game Simulator" feature to project what the outcome would be between any two teams (not just the ones scheduled to play each other).  The simulator factors in home field advantage, allowing you to see how the outcomes might change depending on the venue.  Pretty cool, huh?  The "Versus Sports Simulator" is available for download from Google Play.  You can also view more screenshots on the Versus home page.

Enjoy the preseason rankings and the football season!!